NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

AN OCCUPATIONAL INJURY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS HEALTH SCIENCE CENTER AT HOUSTON

The purpose of this research and development project was to develop a method, a design, and a prototype for gathering, managing, and presenting data about occupational injuries.^ State-of-the-art systems analysis and design methodologies were applied to the long standing problem in the field of occupational safety and health of processing workplace injuries data into information for safety and health program management as well as preliminary research about accident etiologies. The top-down planning and bottom-up implementation approach was utilized to design an occupational injury management information system. A description of a managerial control system and a comprehensive system to integrate safety and health program management was provided.^ The project showed that current management information systems (MIS) theory and methods could be applied successfully to the problems of employee injury surveillance and control program performance evaluation. The model developed in the first section was applied at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UTHSCH).^ The system in current use at the UTHSCH was described and evaluated, and a prototype was developed for the UTHSCH. The prototype incorporated procedures for collecting, storing, and retrieving records of injuries and the procedures necessary to prepare reports, analyses, and graphics for management in the Health Science Center. Examples of reports, analyses, and graphics presenting UTHSCH and computer generated data were included.^ It was concluded that a pilot test of this MIS should be implemented and evaluated at the UTHSCH and other settings. Further research and development efforts for the total safety and health management information systems, control systems, component systems, and variable selection should be pursued. Finally, integration of the safety and health program MIS into the comprehensive or executive MIS was recommended. ^

Acetate metabolism and the control of environmental pH in Candida albicans and Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Candida albicans is the most common opportunistic fungal pathogen of humans. The balance between commensal and pathogenic C. albicans is maintained largely by phagocytes of the innate immune system. Analysis of transcriptional changes after macrophage phagocytosis indicates the C. albicans response is broadly similar to starvation, including up-regulation of alternate carbon metabolism. Systems known and suspected to be part of acetate/acetyl-CoA metabolism were also up-regulated, importantly the ACH and ACS genes, which manage acetate/acetyl-CoA interconversion, and the nine-member ATO gene family, thought to participate in transmembrane acetate transport and also linked to the process of environmental alkalinization. ^ Studies into the roles of Ach, Acs1 and Acs2 function in alternate carbon metabolism revealed a substantial role for Acs2 and lesser, but distinct roles, for Ach and Acs1. Deletion mutants were made in C. albicans and were phenotypically evaluated both in vitro and in vivo. Loss of Ach function resulted in mild growth defects on ethanol and acetate and no significant attenuation in virulence in a disseminated mouse model of infection. While loss of Acs1 did not produce any significant phenotypes, loss of Acs2 greatly impaired growth on multiple carbon sources, including glucose, ethanol and acetate. We also concluded that ACS1 and ACS2 likely comprise an essential gene pair. Expression analyses indicated that ACS2 is the predominant form under most growth conditions. ^ ATO gene function had been linked to the process of environmental alkalinization, an ammonium-mediated phenomenon described here first in C. albicans. During growth in glucose-poor, amino acid-rich conditions C. albicans can rapidly change its extracellular pH. This process was glucose-repressible and was accompanied by hyphal formation and changes in colony morphology. We showed that introduction of the ATO1G53D point mutant to C. albicans blocked alkalinization, as did over-expression of C. albicans ATO2, the only C. albicans ATO gene to lack the conserved N-terminal domain. A screen for alkalinization-deficient mutants revealed that ACH1 is essential for alkalinization. However, addition of acetate to the media restored alkalinization to the ach1 mutant. We proposed a model of ATO function in which Atos regulated the cellular co-export of ammonium and acetate. ^

A comparative analysis of hospital -based physician monitoring systems

The purpose of the multiple case-study was to determine how hospital subsystems (such as physician monitoring and credentialing; quality assurance; risk management; and peer review) were supporting the monitoring of physicians? Three large metropolitan hospitals in Texas were studied and designated as hospitals #1, #2, and #3. Realizing that hospital subsystems are a unique entity and part of a larger system, conclusions were made on the premises of a quality control system, in relation to the tools of government (particularly the Health Care Quality Improvement Act (HCQIA)), and in relation to itself as a tool of a hospital.^ Three major analytical assessments were performed. First, the subsystems were analyzed as to their "completeness"; secondly, the subsystems were analyzed for "performance"; and thirdly, the subsystems were analyzed in reference to the interaction of completeness and performance.^ The physician credentialing and monitoring and the peer review subsystems as quality control systems were most complete, efficient, and effective in hospitals #1 and #3. The HCQIA did not seem to be an influencing factor in the completeness of the subsystem in hospital #1. The quality assurance and risk management subsystem in hospital #2 was not representative of completeness and performance and the HCQIA was not an influencing factor in the completeness of the Q.A. or R.M. systems in any hospital. The efficiency (computerization) of the physician credentialing, quality assurance and peer review subsystems in hospitals #1 and #3 seemed to contribute to their effectiveness (system-wide effect).^ The results indicated that the more complete, effective, and efficient subsystems were characterized by (1) all defined activities being met, (2) the HCQIA being an influencing factor, (3) a decentralized administrative structure, (4) computerization an important element, and (5) staff was sophisticated in subsystem operations. However, other variables were identified which deserve further research as to their effect on completeness and performance of subsystems. They include (1) medical staff affiliations, (2) system funding levels, (3) the system's administrative structure, and (4) the physician staff "cultural" characteristics. Perhaps by understanding other influencing factors, health care administrators may plan subsystems that will be compatible with legislative requirements and administrative objectives. ^

Regulation of the heat shock response by thiol-reactive compounds in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Cells govern their activities and modulate their interactions with the environment to achieve homeostasis. The heat shock response (HSR) is one of the most well studied fundamental cellular responses to environmental and physiological challenges, resulting in rapid synthesis of heat shock proteins (HSPs), which serve to protect cellular constituents from the deleterious effects of stress. In addition to its role in cytoprotection, the HSR also influences lifespan and is associated with a variety of human diseases including cancer, aging and neurodegenerative disorders. In most eukaryotes, the HSR is primarily mediated by the highly conserved transcription factor HSF1, which recognizes target hsp genes by binding to heat shock elements (HSEs) in their promoters. In recent years, significant efforts have been made to identify small molecules as potential pharmacological activators of HSF1 that could be used for therapeutic benefit in the treatment of human diseases relevant to protein conformation. However, the detailed mechanisms through which these molecules drive HSR activation remain unclear. In this work, I utilized the baker's yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae as a model system to identify a group of thiol-reactive molecules including oxidants, transition metals and metalloids, and electrophiles, as potent activators of yeast Hsf1. Using an artificial HSE-lacZ reporter and the glucocorticoid receptor system (GR), these diverse thiol-reactive compounds are shown to activate Hsf1 and inhibit Hsp90 chaperone complex activity in a reciprocal, dose-dependent manner. To further understand whether cells sense these reactive compounds through accumulation of unfolded proteins, the proline analog azetidine-2-carboxylic acid (AZC) and protein cross-linker dithiobis(succinimidyl propionate) (DSP) were used to force misfolding of nascent polypeptides and existing cytosolic proteins, respectively. Both unfolding reagents display kinetic HSP induction profiles dissimilar to those generated by thiol-reactive compounds. Moreover, AZC treatment leads to significant cytotoxicity, which is not observed in the presence of the thiol-reactive compounds at the concentrations sufficient to induce Hsf1. Additionally, DSP treatment has little to no effect on Hsp90 functions. Together with the ultracentrifugation analysis of cell lysates that detected no insoluble protein aggregates, my data suggest that at concentrations sufficient to induce Hsf1, thiol-reactive compounds do not induce the HSR via a mechanism based on accumulation of unfolded cytosolic proteins. Another possibility is that thiol-reactive compounds may influence aspects of the protein quality control system such as the ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS). To address this hypothesis, β-galactosidase reporter fusions were used as model substrates to demonstrate that thiol-reactive compounds do not inhibit ubiquitin activating enzymes (E1) or proteasome activity. Therefore, thiol-reactive compounds do not activate the HSR by inhibiting UPS-dependent protein degradation. I therefore hypothesized that these molecules may directly inactivate protein chaperones, known as repressors of Hsf1. To address this possibility, a thiol-reactive biotin probe was used to demonstrate in vitro that the yeast cytosolic Hsp70 Ssa1, which partners with Hsp90 to repress Hsf1, is specifically modified. Strikingly, mutation of conserved cysteine residues in Ssa1 renders cells insensitive to Hsf1 activation by cadmium and celastrol but not by heat shock. Conversely, substitution with the sulfinic acid and steric bulk mimic aspartic acid led to constitutive activation of Hsf1. Cysteine 303, located in the nucleotide-binding/ATPase domain of Ssa1, was shown to be modified in vivo by a model organic electrophile using Click chemistry technology, verifying that Ssa1 is a direct target for thiol-reactive compounds through adduct formation. Consistently, cadmium pretreatment promoted cells thermotolerance, which is abolished in cells carrying SSA1 cysteine mutant alleles. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that Hsp70 acts as a sensor to induce the cytoprotective heat shock response in response to environmental or endogenously produced thiol-reactive molecules and can discriminate between two distinct environmental stressors.